United States midterm election
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Midterm elections in the United States are the general elections that are held near the midpoint of a president's four-year term of office, on Election Day on the Tuesday after the first Monday in November. Federal offices that are up for election during the midterms include all 435 seats in the United States House of Representatives, and 33 or 34 of the 100 seats in the United States Senate.
In addition, 34 of the 50 U.S. states elect their governors for four-year terms during midterm elections, while Vermont and New Hampshire elect governors to two-year terms in both midterm and presidential elections. Thus, 36 governors are elected during midterm elections. Many states also elect officers to their state legislatures in midterm years. There are also elections held at the municipal level. On the ballot are many mayors, other local public offices, and a wide variety of citizen and legislatively referred initiatives.
Special elections are often held in conjunction with regular elections,[1] so additional Senators, governors and other local officials may be elected to partial terms.
Midterm elections historically generate lower voter turnout than presidential elections. While the latter have had turnouts of about 50–60% over the past 60 years, only about 40% of those eligible to vote go to the polls in midterm elections.[2][3] Historically, midterm elections often see the president's party lose seats in Congress, and also frequently see the president's opposite-party opponents gain control of one or both houses of Congress.[4]
Background
[edit]While Article II, Section 1, Clause 1 of the United States Constitution sets the U.S. president's term of office to four years, Article I, Section 2, Clause 1 sets a two-year term for congressmembers elected to the U.S. House of Representatives. Article I, Section 3, Clause 1 then sets a six-year term for those elected to the U.S. Senate, with Clause 2 dividing the chamber into three "classes" so that approximately one-third of those seats are up for election every two years.[5]
The elections for many state and local government offices are held during the midterms so they are not overshadowed or influenced by the presidential election.[citation needed] Still, a number of state and local governments instead prefer to avoid presidential and midterm years altogether and schedule their local races during odd-numbered "off-years".[6]
Historical record of midterm
[edit]Midterm elections are regarded as a referendum on the sitting president's and/or incumbent party's performance.[7][8]
The party of the incumbent president tends to lose ground during midterm elections:[9] since World War II, the president's party has lost an average of 26 seats in the House, and an average of four seats in the Senate.
Moreover, since direct public midterm elections were introduced, in only eight of those (under presidents Woodrow Wilson, Franklin D. Roosevelt, John F. Kennedy, Richard Nixon, Bill Clinton, George W. Bush, Donald Trump, and Joe Biden) has the president's party gained seats in the House or the Senate, and of those only two (1934, Franklin D. Roosevelt, and 2002, George W. Bush) have seen the president's party gain seats in both houses.
The losses suffered during a president's second midterm tend to be more pronounced than during their first midterm,[10] in what is described as a "six-year itch".
Comparison with other U.S. general elections
[edit]| Year | 2024 | 2025 | 2026 | 2027 | 2028 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Type | Presidential | Off-year | Midterm | Off-year | Presidential |
| President | Yes | No | Yes | ||
| Senate | Class I (33 seats) | No | Class II (33 seats) | No | Class III (34 seats) |
| House | All 435 seats[3] | No | All 435 seats[2] | No | All 435 seats[3] |
| Gubernatorial | 11 states, 2 territories DE, IN, MO, MT, NH, NC, ND, UT, VT, WA, WV, AS, PR |
2 states NJ, VA |
36 states, DC, & 3 territories[4] AL, AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IA, KS, ME, MD, MA, MI, MN, NE, NV, NH, NM, NY, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, VT, WI, WY, DC (Mayor), GU, MP, VI |
3 states KY, LA, MS |
11 states, 2 territories DE, IN, MO, MT, NH, NC, ND, UT, VT, WA, WV, AS, PR |
| Lieutenant gubernatorial[5] | 5 states, 1 territory DE, MO, NC, VT, WA, AS |
1 state VA |
10 states[6] AL, AR, CA, GA, ID, NV, OK, RI, TX, VT |
2 states LA, MS |
5 states, 1 territory DE, MO, NC, VT, WA, AS |
| Secretary of state | 7 states MO, MT, NC, OR, VT, WA, WV |
None | 26 states AL, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, GA, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, MA, MI, MN, NE, NV, NM, ND, OH, RI, SC, TX, VT, WI, WY |
3 states KY, LA, MS |
7 states MO, MT, NC, OR, VT, WA, WV |
| Attorney general | 10 states IN, MO, MT, NC, OR, PA, UT, VT, WA, WV |
1 state VA |
30 states, DC, & 2 territories AL, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, ID, IL, IA, KS, MD, MA, MI, MN, NE, NV, NM, NY, ND, OH, OK, RI, SC, SD, TX, VT, WI, DC, GU, MP |
3 states KY, LA, MS |
10 states IN, MO, MT, NC, OR, PA, UT, VT, WA, WV |
| State treasurer[7] | 9 states MO, NC, ND, OR, PA, UT, VT, WA, WV |
None | 23 states AL, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, FL (CFO), ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, MA, NE, NV, NM, OH, OK, RI, SC, VT, WI, WY |
2 states KY, MS |
9 states MO, NC, ND, OR, PA, UT, VT, WA, WV |
| State comptroller/controller | None | None | 7 states CA, CT, IL, MD, NV, NY, SC |
None | None |
| State auditor | 9 states MT, NC, ND, PA, UT, VT, WA, WV, GU |
None | 15 states AL, AR, DE, IN, IA, MA, MN, MO, NE, NM, OH, OK, SD, VT, WY |
1 state KY |
9 states MT, NC, ND, PA, UT, VT, WA, WV, GU |
| Superintendent of public instruction | 4 states MT, NC, ND, WA |
1 state WI |
8 states AZ, CA, GA, ID, OK, SC, SD (incl. Land), WY |
None | 4 states MT, NC, ND, WA |
| Agriculture commissioner | 2 states NC, WV |
None | 6 states AL, FL, GA, IA, ND, SC |
2 states KY, MS |
2 states NC, WV |
| Insurance commissioner | 3 states NC, ND, WA, |
None | 5 states DE, CA GA, KS, OK, |
2 states LA, MS |
3 states NC, ND, WA, |
| Other commissioners & elected officials | 1 state NC (Labor) |
None | 8 states AZ (Mine Inspector), AR (Land), GA (Land), NM (Land), ND (Tax), OK (Labor), OR (Labor), TX (Land) |
None | 1 state NC (Labor) |
| State legislatures[8] | 44 states, DC, & 5 territories AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, ME, MA, MI, MN, MO, MN, NE, NV, NH, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, WA, WV, WI, WY, DC, AS, GU, MP, PR, VI |
2 states VA, NJ |
46 states, DC, & 4 territories AK, AL, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, ME, MA, MD, MI, MN, MO, MN, NE, NV, NH, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, WA, WV, WI, WY, DC, AS, GU, MP, VI |
4 states LA, MS, NJ, VA |
44 states, DC, & 5 territories AK, AZ, AR, CA, CO, CT, DE, FL, GA, HI, ID, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, ME, MA, MI, MN, MO, MN, NE, NV, NH, NM, NY, NC, ND, OH, OK, OR, PA, RI, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, VT, WA, WV, WI, WY, DC, AS, GU, MP, PR, VI |
| State boards of education [9] | 8 states, DC, & 3 territories AL, CO, KS, MI, NE, OH, TX, UT, DC, GU, MP, VI |
None | 8 states, DC, & 3 territories AL, CO, KS, MI, NE, OH, TX, UT, DC, GU, MP, VI |
None | 8 states, DC, & 3 territories AL, CO, KS, MI, NE, OH, TX, UT, DC, GU, MP, VI |
| Other state, local, and tribal offices | Varies | ||||
- 1 This table does not include special elections, which may be held to fill political offices that have become vacant between the regularly scheduled elections.
- 2 As well as all six non-voting delegates of the U.S. House.
- 3 As well as five non-voting delegates of the U.S. House. The resident commissioner of Puerto Rico instead serves a four-year term that coincides with the presidential term.
- 4 The governors of New Hampshire and Vermont are each elected to two-year terms. The other 48 state governors and all five territorial governors serve four-year terms.
- 5 In 26 states and 3 territories the lieutenant governor is elected on the same ticket as the governor: AK, CO, CT, FL, HI, IL, IN, IA, KS, KY, MD, MA, MI, MN, MT, NE, NJ, NM, NY, ND, OH, PA, SC, SD, UT, WI, GU, MP, VI.
- 6 Like the governor, Vermont's other officials are each elected to two-year terms. All other state officers for all other states listed serve four-year terms.
- 7 In some states, the comptroller or controller has the duties equivalent to a treasurer. There are some states with both positions, so both have been included separately.
- 8 This list does not differentiate chambers of each legislature. Forty-nine state legislatures are bicameral; Nebraska is unicameral. Additionally, Washington, DC, Guam, and the US Virgin Islands are unicameral; the other territories are bicameral. All legislatures have varying terms for their members. Many have two-year terms for the lower house and four-year terms for the upper house. Some have all two-year terms and some all four-year terms. Arkansas has a combination of both two- and four-year terms in the same chamber.
- 9 Most states not listed here have a board appointed by the governor and legislature. All boards listed here have members that serve four-year staggered terms, except Colorado, which has six-year terms, and Guam, which has two-year terms. Most are elected statewide, some are elected from districts. Louisiana, Ohio, Guam, and the Northern Mariana Islands have additional members who are appointed.
Notes
[edit]- ^ Party shading shows which party controls chamber after that election.
- ^ Gain/loss numbers are for the Pro-Administration faction (1790) and Federalist Party (1794).
- ^ Gain/loss numbers are for the anti-Jacksonian faction.
- ^ Gain/loss numbers are for the pro-Jacksonian faction.
- ^ Tyler was elected on the Whig ticket in 1840 but expelled from the party in 1841. Gain/loss numbers are for the Whig Party.
References
[edit]- ^ Dewhirst, Robert; Rausesch, John David (2007). Encyclopedia of the United States Congress. New York: Infobase Publishing. p. 138. ISBN 978-0816050581.
- ^ "Demand for Democracy". The Pew Center on the States. Archived from the original on 2010-06-18. Retrieved 2011-10-13.
- ^ Desilver, D. (2014) Voter turnout always drops off for midterm elections, but why? Pew Research Center, July 24, 2014.
- ^ Busch, Andrew (1999). Horses in Midstream. University of Pittsburgh Press. pp. 18–21.
- ^ Waxman, Olivia (November 5, 2018). "Why Do Midterm Elections Even Exist? Here's Why the Framers Scheduled Things This Way". Time. Retrieved October 15, 2022.
- ^ "Why These 5 States Hold Odd-Year Elections, Bucking The Trend". NPR. November 4, 2019.
- ^ Baker, Peter; VandeHei, Jim (2006-11-08). "A Voter Rebuke For Bush, the War And the Right". Washington Post. Retrieved 2010-05-26.
Bush and senior adviser Karl Rove tried to replicate that strategy this fall, hoping to keep the election from becoming a referendum on the president's leadership.
- ^ "Election '98 Lewinsky factor never materialized". CNN. 1998-11-04.
Americans shunned the opportunity to turn Tuesday's midterm elections into a referendum on President Bill Clinton's behavior, dashing Republican hopes of gaining seats in the House and Senate.
- ^ Crockett, David (2002). The Opposition Presidency: Leadership and the Constraints of History. College Station: Texas A&M University Press. pp. 228. ISBN 1585441570.
- ^ "Explaining Midterm Election Outcomes: A New Theory and an Overview of Existing Explanations" (PDF).
External links
[edit]- "Q&A: US mid-term elections". BBC News. 8 November 2006. Retrieved 26 May 2010.